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Why probability of successful trader is 1% to 3%

I am assuming that you have read the type of retail trader, now i am saying that probability of successful trader is 1% to 3% percent

why ?

1) Taking trade is the fight between buyer and seller -

in this buyer and seller institutional are also included now as you already know the fund flow of institutional player is more then 93% then you can't fight with them.


2) Institutional player has eyes On your fund -

retailer watch what institutional player doing

institutional watch what retailer and institutional doing

No retailer watch what other retailer doing

you are doing fight with institutional which fund flow is about 93%


3) Retailer search strategy to earn market -

individual retailer search the strategy in this market -but they don't know that money is itself strategy-which is own by institutional investor.


4) whatever system is using the institutional player knows about that /-and every system has a limitation

for example

if you doing research work in trade tiger (sherkhan) or if you are doing research in kite(zerodha)

they made by institutional player , they made by brokerage house they know the limitation they know where you put the stop loss and target

they play according to them

if you are buying any software-- directly or indirectly made by institutional player

indicator and strategy made by them


5) Institutional player is more intelligence to then retail player


intelligence player can go in wrong way also.

if i will say that -most of the dangerous thing and most of the scam done by intelligence people this data you can find out -and i am sure you will accept this thought


being intelligence doesn't mean that person should be morally good

to most of scam done by intelligence people.


Institutional player have to satisfied there client so they need to show there return in compare of other Institutional player


6) directly i can't say they Institutional player has reach inside the company or governance

but indirectly i can say


we can take example-

if you are reach your connection will be same kind of people

insider trading is the one of example

many time we listen about scam

many time we listen about insider trading


SEBI do there work on them -but they give some money and start doing in different way

in all story

only one type of people get trapped-which is retailer

they loose there money

they get depression and

no one is case about them SEBI again come with there next improvisation rule

and what happen those people those who trap in that scam or those who trap in insider Trading no one cares.


7) Retail player biased More then Institutional

first let's understand

what is biased ?


if i would say the human being Is part of Genes and socialization-


when you already made your value for something then you will not accept the other value

usually there are three types of biased -


1) confirmation biased :-


when person is socialize from something and he/she is not able to understand truth or fact

means he/she is conforming the confirmation biased

Example -1) if someone is support of any political party /-now if other one said wrong about that party he/she is not able to listen the fact or truth

why ?

because he/she is conforming that his/her value is that or confirming the biased


2) if someone come from one religion they said they are good other one is bad

it don't mean other one is bad -it only means that due to his/her socialization he/she is saying like that -this is not a truth


same thing happen with retail trader -they don't want to listen negative point about market or anything which they are doing

this is the one of biggest mistake they made


2) selectivity avoidance :-


next step of confirmation biased --when our believe system became strong and we are not wanted to listen others thought ,avoiding there thought

whenever we find any book/person/tv/ or anything is opposite of my thought then we runaway from them

this is more more problem of retail trader


3) biased assimilation :-

if someone talk with logic we don't listen them and

we assume that he/she whatever saying everything is wrong.

this is one more problem of retail trader

NOW let's avoid the biased :

how we can avoid the biased??

only one scientific method to avoid the biased


value neutrality

or Equanimity

this is theoretical word easy to say these work but when we apply it's not

but it doesn't mean you can't do

you can do with practices


when you start undersetting your emotion and you are just being neutral with them every time then you will under stand the emotion Discipline Otherwise this will be one theoretical word only.


now come to conclusion:-


why retail trader do not get success

if they follow all point knowledge limitation understand the fear and greed of the market


but they don't understand self fear and greed and this is not easy

comes after lot's of practices

Those who can implement then get result

according to my Experience which come from lot's of people and after self analysis only 1% -2% your strategy work your research work - remaining 98% - 99% your emotional discipline work, i am not accuracy is 1-2%, accuracy you can get 90-95 or sometime 100 % also, but accuracy comes in research work.

research is analyzing the market

and trading is executing them


Thankyou

be happy







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